After being drawn into a direct and damaging confrontation with Israel during the Gaza War, Iran is now in a phase of strategic recovery. Shaken by unexpected blows to its military networks and deterrence, Tehran is expanding its missile reach, debating nuclear weaponisation, and rebuilding its regional proxies to restore its “ring of fire” around Israel. Beneath this defiance lies anxiety and division, as Iran’s leadership struggles to regain credibility, manage internal pressure, and navigate an uncertain path between confrontation and negotiation with the United States.
