After being drawn into a direct and damaging confrontation with Israel during the Gaza War, Iran is now in a phase of strategic recovery. Shaken by unexpected blows to its military networks and deterrence, Tehran is expanding its missile reach, debating nuclear weaponisation, and rebuilding its regional proxies to restore its “ring of fire” around Israel. Beneath this defiance lies anxiety and division, as Iran’s leadership struggles to regain credibility, manage internal pressure, and navigate an uncertain path between confrontation and negotiation with the United States.
In a concerning escalation of tensions, the Israeli military has reported that 34 rockets were fired from Lebanon towards Israel, with at least four landing in Israeli territory. While the latest exchange of fire follows violent clashes between Israeli police and Palestinians at the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem, it is the assessment of Midstone Centre that the instigation of tension in the region has been in the plans of the Iranian regime and its proxies for some time.