After being drawn into a direct and damaging confrontation with Israel during the Gaza War, Iran is now in a phase of strategic recovery. Shaken by unexpected blows to its military networks and deterrence, Tehran is expanding its missile reach, debating nuclear weaponisation, and rebuilding its regional proxies to restore its “ring of fire” around Israel. Beneath this defiance lies anxiety and division, as Iran’s leadership struggles to regain credibility, manage internal pressure, and navigate an uncertain path between confrontation and negotiation with the United States.
The ‘Anti-Assad Triangle,’ comprising Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Syrian Opposition Forces, and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), has recaptured significant parts of Aleppo in a surprise offensive, pushing back regime forces weakened by the absence of strong support from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Turkey has backed this coalition to pressure Assad, while Israel benefits from the disruption to Iranian and Hezbollah infrastructure in Syria. However, regional security concerns persist, with potential re-engagements by Iranian forces, Hezbollah, and Russian interests to stabilise Assad's crumbling hold on power. The coming days will test the regime's ability to regroup or face further losses.
Iran's recent military actions across the Middle East represent a significant escalation in regional tensions. An attack on Pakistan, however, represents a new level of escalation.
In a concerning escalation of tensions, the Israeli military has reported that 34 rockets were fired from Lebanon towards Israel, with at least four landing in Israeli territory. While the latest exchange of fire follows violent clashes between Israeli police and Palestinians at the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem, it is the assessment of Midstone Centre that the instigation of tension in the region has been in the plans of the Iranian regime and its proxies for some time.
With Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House with a Republican majority, it is widely assumed that there will be some shifts in US Foreign Policy. There are several countries in crisis that could benefit from a change of approach from Washington, whether it’s increasing development projects, increased…
A few days ago, Midstone Centre associate Vineet reached out to the spokesperson of Jaish al-ʿAdl, Hossein Baloch, via an encrypted messaging app, and requested an interview. Our request was granted by the group’s spokesperson and a short interview was conducted in Persian. The views and opinions expressed by the individual interviewed are solely his own and are based on his own perspective and opinions. The views expressed in the publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the author or Midstone Centre. In light of the ongoing protests in Iran and the subsequent crackdown by the regime, Jaish al-’Adl announced support for the protesters. The intention behind this interview is to explore and understand the views and stances of Jaish al-’Adl.
Arabian Gulf: The United States Navy 5th Fleet prevented an Iranian military ship from seizing an unmanned US Navy ship in the Arabian Gulf.
Pakistan faces political and economic turmoil. Not only does the country flirt with bankruptcy, but there are deep political divisions across the whole country. These political differences have seeped into Pakistan’s foreign and national security policies. The unbending policies of the previous Prime Minister Imran Khan put Pakistan…