Three factions are involved in the latest surprise capture of most parts of Aleppo, a strong Syrian province, which I named the ‘Anti-Assad Triangle.’
Jihadists (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – HTS)
Syrian Opposition Forces (Rebels)
Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
This ‘Anti-Assad Triangle’ has successfully pushed regime forces back into retreat. Russian forces have backed the regime with heavy airstrikes on the ‘Anti-Assad Triangle’, but there is news that Russian forces have abandoned their military checkpoints, now under HTS control, as well as Aleppo International Airport. HTS has also seized a military academy in Aleppo. The group is the main active jihadist force in the area and controls an enclave encompassing around half of Idlib Province, along with parts of neighbouring Aleppo, Latakia, and Hama. The conflict has also attracted jihadist extremists, such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group, who are among the anti-government factions.
The ‘Anti-Assad Triangle’ is fully supported by the Turkish government, which began controlling major cities and towns in Syria in 2011. For years, the ‘Anti-Assad Triangle’ has been preparing this move to recapture Syrian provinces lost after Iran and Russia entered the conflict to ensure the survival of the paralysed Assad regime in 2012.
It took the Syrian regime and its backers—Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah—more than four years to dislodge rebel forces from the country’s second-largest city, Aleppo. However, in 2016, a surprise rebel offensive recaptured Aleppo in just a few days, including parts of the city that the Syrian Army had never surrendered before.
“Russia is weakened, Iran is weakened, Hezbollah is beaten, and all this has created an enormous opportunity for Turkey, which it was quick to grab,” said Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, a Turkey specialist at the Brookings Institution.
Iran has supported Assad from the start, providing advisers, weapons, billions of dollars, and troops to help him maintain his grip. Iranian-backed militias such as Hezbollah have been fighting on Assad’s side since at least 2012. Russia threw its weight behind Assad in 2015, as Vladimir Putin saw a chance to reassert Moscow’s influence on the world stage.
It was the right time for the ‘Anti-Assad Triangle’ to attack the regime forces because the regime’s supportive pillars are now either unable to assist or cannot provide manpower as they once did, for several reasons:
- Iran is recovering from Israeli strikes that have destroyed its air defence systems and eliminated IRGC generals and advisers involved in Syrian operations.
- The assassination of Qassem Soleimani by the US removed a critical figure instrumental in ensuring Assad’s political survival.
- Israel has dismantled Hezbollah’s command structure, eliminating much of its leadership in Lebanon.
- Russia is mired in the Ukrainian war, reducing its ability to send military assistance.
- Assad now has fewer military assets, weaker allies, and diminished command and control capabilities.
Beneficiaries of the Latest Offensive
- Turkey: Turkey backs the offensive to put pressure on Assad and prevent a regime operation that could drive refugees toward its borders.
- Israel: Israel has short-term advantages:
- Iranian infrastructure in Syria has been harmed, and much of it is now under rebel control.
- Hezbollah’s attention may shift back to Syria to assist the Assad regime, diverting its focus from Israel.
Regional Security Concerns
- Russia’s Base: Russia will not abandon its base in Syria, as its port on the Syrian coast, at Tartus, is critical for operations in the Mediterranean and Libya.
- Iranian Forces: Syria might open its gates to significant numbers of Iranian forces to stabilise the country.
- Hezbollah: The group may return to Syria to bolster Assad’s regime.
Israel’s Position
Israel is closely monitoring the recent offensive, which could pose a security threat from jihadists near its borders. However, Syrian rebels have sent a conciliatory message to Israelis:
“Our message to the Israeli people is to worry about Iran and Hezbollah. We are taking care of them. Brother, you should be afraid of Bashar al-Assad, Iran, and Hezbollah (not us).”
Assad’s Predicament
Assad is in a weak position and has tried to maintain a low profile since 7 October 2023, when Hamas’s attack escalated into a regional conflict involving Israel, Iran, and Iranian proxies. The rebel offensive now directly threatens his survival, forcing him to look to his allies for support.
Israel, in turn, is monitoring movements from Iran and Lebanon to assist Assad. According to a report in The Wall Street Journal:
“The most important factor behind Assad’s loss of Aleppo was the rout inflicted by Israel on Hezbollah. Equipped by Iran and Russia, the Lebanese militia was the most capable infantry fighting on Assad’s behalf and was instrumental in rolling back rebel gains in the past.”
Fighting in the coming days will reveal whether the Syrian military can regroup and counterattack or whether it will continue a chaotic retreat from other major population centres.